The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy setting unchanged. Subsequently, USD/JPY took a leg higher. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Yen’s outlook.
USD/JPY will only be driven by the Dollar side
The BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged and showed no signs of moving in the direction of ‘less ultra-expansionary’.
USD/JPY will really only move in the direction of the dollar. In other words, in the end, it will never be about yen strength, but always about dollar weakness when USD/JPY falls (for example, because expectations of a Fed rate cut are rising, as is the case now). And the BoJ can only expect a weaker dollar if it wants a stronger yen.
At the same time, all efforts to intervene against possible Yen weakness, should the Dollar appreciate again at some point, will ultimately always be doomed to failure. By hesitating for (too) long, the BoJ has taken away a lot of room for maneuver in the future and put the fate of the Yen in the hands of the Fed or the Dollar.
