USD/JPY at just a whisper below 151.50. Economists at Rabobank analyze the pair’s outlook.
Potential for USD/JPY to move back below 145 in H2 2024
So far, no new verbal intervention has been reported from the MoF, though there is a high possibility of it. Given the risk that verbal intervention with JPY purchases by the authorities may follow, the market will likely be very reluctant to push USD/JPY above 152.00.
The slow progress of policy normalisation suggests that USD/JPY may continue to trade above the 150 level in the weeks ahead.
Any step-up in speculation of a rate hike would allow USD/JPY to move lower next year. The spring wage rounds are likely to be a crucial determinant in policy decisions in 2024. We see the potential for USD/JPY to move back below 145 in H2 2024.
